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In the past 20 years or so, obesity has been rising at what seems like an exponential level. Originally, this seemed to be restricted to the US, but according to the latest projections released by the World Health Organization (WHO), Europe is expected to face a massive obesity crisis by 2030. This data highlights a serious problem for many countries. In Ireland, it’s expected that 90% of men and 85% of women will be overweight within 15 years. This is compared to 74% of men and 57% of women just five years ago.
There are other countries facing similar crises, such as the United Kingdom, Greece, Spain, Austria and the Czech Republic, as well as nations with traditionally lower portions of obesity, such as Sweden. According to the WHO, few countries in Europe will see any stability or decrease in overweight and obesity rates. Overall, data shows no no evidence of a plateau in adult obesity. So far, only the Netherlands appears to be fighting the trend. However, these results are only meant to be a worst-case scenario, since this data doesn’t take prevention efforts into accounts. Nonetheless, obesity in adults isn’t yet decreasing, despite a large number of initiatives. While there’s plenty of variability, there’s a general increase in obesity rates in all countries.
However, the researchers with the WHO stress that the strength of these projections highly depends on the quality of the available data from each country. For example, much of Europe only has self-reported data on height and weight to determine the prevalence of obesity. In addition, the data isn’t nationally representative in many of the countries, as they tend to focus on just a few cities or regions. Nonetheless, these findings indicate that prevention remains extremely important in managing the health of Europeans.
It remains unclear as to how the obesity epidemic will play out in the next 20 years, since surveillance and monitoring data are frequently lacking, and future projections in each country have yet to be conducted. Using available data on BMI in adults, normal weight, overweight and obesity trends were projected to 2030 for all 53 countries in the WHO European region. By 2030, the rate of overweight Europeans is expected to increase in 41 countries, and obesity is expected to increase in 47 and 34 countries for men and women, respectively.
Among the countries predicted to have major increases in overweight and obesity are Greece and Spain which, in addition to Ireland, have been suffering financial crises over the past few years. The percentage of obese men in Greece is set to more than double between 2010 and 2030, and Greek women are expected to see similar increases. In Spain, obesity in women is projected to rise from 16% in 2010 to 21% in 2030. The rise is expected to be much steeper in men, going up from 19% to 36%. Even though there’s an accepted correlation between obesity and lower socioeconomic status, there isn’t enough data yet to establish a link between austerity and obesity.
In addition to Spain, Greece and Ireland, the Czech Republic and the UK are predicted to have a steep rise in obesity. Even in countries like Sweden, which traditionally have a lower prevalence of obesity, rates are predicted to rise sharply. The only country that seems to have a reverse trend is the Netherlands. By 2030, less than half of Dutch men are predicted to be overweight, and just 8% to be obese, compared to 54% and 10%, respectively, in 2010. The proportion of overweight Dutch women is expected to more or less remain stable over the 20 years between 2010 and 2030, although their obesity rate is predicted to fall from 13% to 9% during this period. As of yet, it isn’t entirely clear as to why the Netherlands is faring so much better than other countries in regards to obesity rates.
Jude Fabiano DDS Work Experience http://ift.tt/1RgOfjl
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